ATAL SA – a Polish developer – selected Knight Frank as its exclusive agent to commercialize the Krakowska 35 office property in Wroclaw. The consultancy will also manage the property. The edifice with a total area of ca. 14,000 sqm will be handed over for use in Q1 2021.
A record high volume was achieved largely due to two significant transactions in the UK, namely the forward purchase by Riverstone Living of the Royal Warwick Square project in London and the development of four retirement villages by Audley group, who teamed up with Octopus Investments and Schroder Exempt PUT.
Outside of the UK, Savills suggests that the senior living sector is still in its infancy across mainland Europe and the market remains opaque. To date, this has been restricting the volumes of cross border investment to just 30% of the European total on average over the past five years. This compares to 40% of the total investment volumes into multifamily assets and 62% for the student housing sector.
Polish senior living sector so far has attracted only few institutional investors with Orpea Polska being a clear market leader. Orpea after take-over of Medi-System in 2016 and subsequent acquisitions currently operates 1.1 thousand beds and develops additional 1.6 thousand beds.
Kamil Kowa, Board Member, Head of Corporate Finance & Valuation at Savills in Poland, says: “The main constraints for the development of the market include relatively low purchasing power of Polish seniors compared to their European peers which induces dependence of the system on the contracts with Polish National Health Fund (NFZ). However, Polish population is one of the fastest aging in Europe and the financial foundations of the elderly should increase in line with the economy getting stronger - this makes Poland one of the most attractive markets for international investors in the sector.”
Lydia Brissy, Director, Savills European Research, comments: “Operating effectively in this sector requires strong knowledge of regulations and a good understanding of the family culture and attitudes of the elderly population, which can be very different from one European country to another. However, the demographic drivers for the sector are clear. Many European countries have ageing populations, which creates a significant need for a variety of purpose built housing, and so opportunities for private initiatives to supply housing that meets these needs.”
Savills reports that cross border investment into the sector has predominantly come from Europe, but US investors, who have made inroads in both the student housing and multifamily sectors, are now starting to look at the potential for senior living.
The Savills Senior Housing Opportunity Index indicates that Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Poland all offer excellent opportunities, with strong potential demand for senior living projects. This is based on their demographic trends, the maturity of their housing markets and the private wealth of their elderly populations.
Germany takes the top spot for sector potential due to it having the largest elderly population (70-79 years old) at approximately 7.8 million and the Germans being some of the best savers. France comes in second place on the basis that French seniors are relatively wealthy, having a high saving rate and needing to use a lower proportion of their income for housing costs than many of their European counterparts. The UK, ranked third, has the most liquid real estate market with assets being sold faster than in continental Europe, in which the residential segment is very sophisticated and not overly regulated compared to other European countries. In fourth place is Italy, which has the highest share of elderly people as a percentage of the population, and fifth is Poland, which has one of the fastest growing elderly populations and very low number of dwellings per capita, making it a great prospective country for the senior living market.
“The growing number of seniors living longer and with greater purchasing power, which they spend largely on housing, suggests the senior housing sector in Europe is backed by strong fundamentals and is bound to expand in the next decade and beyond,” explains Brissy. “Increasing investor appetite has begun to put downward pressure on prime yields but it remains competitive compared to standard residential assets or commercial real estate. The less cyclical nature of this asset type is also particularly appealing to investors.”
Savills research states that, on average, the yield discount that senior housing offers over other asset classes ranges between 100 bps over prime multifamily and 66 bps over prime CBD-offices. The prime senior housing yield currently ranges between 3.5% and 5% for direct-let, depending on the country, location and quality of asset.
Marcus Roberts, Director, Savills Operational Capital Markets: European Senior Living, Multifamily and Student Housing: “As an asset class, senior living is an increasingly strategic investment opportunity. Institutional investors have a weight of capital to deploy and as prime opportunities in traditional property sectors are becoming rare and competitively priced, they are shifting their focus towards operational–type assets with potential for long term income growth - such as senior living. As the sector is maturing, we expect further yield compression.”
Source: Savills
Hungary's leading real estate company Wing has signed a preliminary agreement to acquire majority interest in Echo Investment, a Polish developer listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Wing is a long-term regional strategic investor and sees great potential in Echo Investment. The new investor intends to continue growing the business consistent with the Strategy of Profitable Growth established by Echo Investment in 2016. This strategy has been executed by Echo Investment management team with whom the new shareholder Wing will work with the goal of continuing to develop the company and its properties.
Skanska office unit in Poland summed up the construction of the Silesia Business Park complex in Katowice. The construction of the first of the four buildings began in 2013. Now, on the site of the former Baildon steelworks, there are 4 buildings, which symbolise the transformation of Katowice into an important centre of services for business, consulting and IT in Poland. Silesia Business Park has been chosen by, among others, PwC, Capgemini, TUV Rheinland and Accenture.
Globalworth, the leading office investor in Central and Eastern Europe, has reported its results for the first half of 2019. The Group negotiated the take-up or extension of more than 100,000 sqm of commercial space, predominantly split between its two target markets of Romania and Poland, making this Globalworth's most active half year of leasing activity to date.
Morski Park Handlowy signed up another tenant. Zoo Karina, a pet shop, has leased nearly 625 sq m of retail space at the complex. Real estate advisory firm Savills acts as a property manager and an exclusive leasing agent on the park.
Regional cities are burgeoning and seeing record-high office supply levels. What was the situation on Poland’s regional markets like in 2018?
Piotr Skuza, a regional manager, Savills office agency: 2018 was a record-breaking year in terms of new office supply in regional cities. In 2018, the overall office supply in Poland’s eight business regions, excluding Warsaw, climbed to more than 512,000 sq m and there was another 940,000 sq m under construction at the end of last year.
At the end of December 2018, total office stock in Poland’s core regional cities (Krakow, Wrocław, Tricity, Katowice, Poznań, Łódź, Lublin and Szczecin) reached 4.9 million sq m. Office developers are stepping up their activity, driven among other things by the growing employment in the BPO/SSC sector, which -according to ABSL’s data - currently employs nearly 279,000 people. Growth in employment in this sector continues unabated, registering an annual rate of approximately 30% and fuelling further demand for office space. Another strong sector is IT, which dominated on the regional markets in 2018, accounting for 34% of all office lease transactions.
In addition to Krakow and Wrocław, other cities are also seeing substantial increases in new office supply. Which regional cities are likely to grow the fastest in the near future?
Krakow and Wrocław are indisputably the largest regional city office markets with 1.26 million sq m and 1.05 million sq m of office space, respectively. The two cities also recorded the highest supply levels in 2018: 155,200 sq m in Krakow and 146,600 sq m in Wrocław, and the largest volumes of space under construction: 247,000 sq m and 222,000 sq m, respectively. The next biggest markets are Tricity (775,000 sq m) and Katowice (519,300 sq m), followed by Katowice-sized Poznań (479,100 sq m) and Łódź (468,900 sq m). Of the eight regional cities, the two smallest markets are Lublin (194,300 sq m) and Szczecin (159,400 sq m).
Besides Krakow and Wrocław, Tricity has the strongest development pipeline of nearly 145,000 sq m. The largest projects currently underway and expected to be delivered in the near future include Alchemia IV Neon, developed by Torus, Olivia Prime B (another office building of the Olivia Business Center) and Wave, the first office project of Skanska Property Poland in Tricity.
At the end of 2018, there was nearly 110,000 sq m under construction in Poznań. The biggest projects in the pipeline comprised the second phase of Business Garden Poznań, completed in March 2019 (45,000 sq m, Vastint) and Nowy Rynek A and B (approx. 35,000 sq m, Skanska), the latter now fully let following two large pre-leases. For Poznań, 2018 was not a peak year in terms of supply growth. Office supply barely topped 21,000 sq m delivered across three schemes: Pixel IV and V, Palacza Office and Garbary 67, a revitalised historic office building. Despite this, Poznań retains its strong position on the office map of Poland.
Source: Savills
The first quarter of 2019 brought personnel changes in the Economic Development and International Cooperation Office in the City of Lodz Office. Adam Pustelnik, the former Office Director, has decided to continue his career in the private sector — namely in the real estate sector, where he will continue to undertake a number of actions aimed at promoting the investment attractiveness of Lodz. However, Adam Pustelnik has not said his last word in the office yet and, as it was in previous years, will continue to act as an advisor to Mayor Hanna Zdanowska in the field of foreign investments.
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